湖北工业大学 外国语学院
阅读团队实践报告
班级: 班级: 学号: 学号: 1311011630 姓名: 蔡杰 姓名: 刘学舟
班级: 班级: 学号: 学号: 姓名: 姓名：
注：排名无先后主次之分，按照姓氏拼音首字母顺序由左至右排列
摘 要
自中华人民共和国成立以来，从计划生育到二孩政策，我国的生育政策随着时代的发展和社会的变化在不断改变。为了以对二孩政策的深入分析和解读，提升批判性思维能力，本文主要通过介绍二胎政策的内容，分析二孩政策的时代背景，从经济、家庭等角度解读二胎政策的影响以及阐明小组成员对二孩政策的异同观点等方面对二孩政策进行深层次的理解，从而弄清二孩政策的必要性。通过分析讨论，我们发现二孩政策的出台有一定的必要性和重要性，但其中仍有许多问题需要改善和解决。
关键词：二孩政策；批判性思维；时代背景；影响；必要性
Abstract
Since the foundation of the People's Republic of China, from two children to the family planning policy, China's two-child policy changes as the development of The times and social change in constant. To promote critical thinking ability by in-depth analysis and interpretation of the two-child policy, this article carries on the deep understanding, so as to make clear the necessity of two child policy mainly through the introduction of the content of a two-child policy, analyzing the background of two-child policy, and from many aspects like economy, the influence of family two-child policy and clarifying the similarities and differences of team members on two-child policy. Through analysis and discussion, we find that two-child policy has certain necessity and importance, but there are still many problems that need to be improved and solved.
Contents
1. Brief introduction to the two-child policy
1.1 The definition of the two-child policy
1.2 The laws and regulations of the two-child policy
2. The background of the two-child policy
3. The existent necessity of the two-child policy
3.1 The views of the west media
3.2 The pros and cons of the two-child policy
3.3 Different opinions from the group
4. Conclusion
5. Main reference(five complete materials)
6. Slides of the PowerPoint
1. Brief introduction to the two-child policy
The two-child policy is a family planning policy of China in which a couple can have at most two children. In the past China's family planning policy required a couple to have one child, but allowed the couple to have the second child under the specific conditions. At the same time, if the couple have already two kids, they are not allowed to have more babies any more.
2. The background of the two-child policy
① Because of such reasons as the high cost of the second child, the shift of the outlook on childbirth, and the lack of security and support of medical and educational insurance from government, the practice of the separate two-child encounter coldness, and the fertility rates has lowed to a dangerous degree.
② For the decreasing number of new birth and the extension of life span, there will be less and less young people, and increasing stand-out problems of the aging of population in society.
③With the end of the baby boomer and the aging of population, Surplus labor force decrease gradually, and the Demographic dividend disappear gradually.
④With the frequent accidents happening and many other unpredictable factors, the number of families losing the only child have risen, which has caused the psychologically heavy pressure in society.
⑤For the fast development of high technology and the influence of traditional outlook—boys are more important than girls, the gender imbalance becomes serious, which inevitably will lead to the severe crisis of population in the future.
3. The existent necessity of the two-child policy
3.1 The views of the west media
In spite of many facts like that More children also mean less education investment per child, and that in the coming years, each member of the post-1980s one-child generation will need to support two older people, on average, China’s shift to a two-child policy is badly
needed — and not just because it will achieve the intended long-term goal of balancing the country’s demographic structure. While there are certainly pitfalls, including a difficult transition period, the policy could prove to be a boon to China’s efforts to put its economy on a more stable long-term growth path. ----------Keyu Jin(a professor of economics at the London School of Economics)
Some experts say the shift is likely too little, too late to address China's looming population crisis. Others warn that many Chinese couples do not want more children, particularly given the expense, and the effects of the change remain unclear.
3.2 The pros and cons of the two-child policy
The pros: ①One-child policy for the Inhibition of imbalance between men and women, under the traditional ideas such as reasons, has led to many parents' ―selective birth‖, thus eventually gender imbalance problem. Now to fully open "two-child policy" can greatly reduce the occurrence of this problem.
②To mitigate the decreasing fertility rates of the population aging inevitably lead to the aging of population and the old aging of population, which has a direct impact on the financial sustainability of social security system. To open the two-child policy would ease population aging, and reduce the risk of society in the future.
The cons: ①National fiscal expenditure would increase after opening the two-child policy, and country will face a series of problems of population growth. Environmental capacity, the fiscal expenditure and public welfare system and some other macro levels will be under pressure with the increase of population.
②The increasing burden of the personal family, in today’s era of high price, leads to a fact that taking a child to adult needs huge cost. To open a second-child policy, for a average household, is a realistic problem that have to be taken into account
According to the data in sixth census, directly calculated results of the total fertility rate is 1.18, far below 2.1. In general, if the total fertility rate is lower than 2.1 (for developed countries), the newborn population is not enough to make up for the number of women and their mates.
3.3 Different opinions from the group
Liu Xuezhou: In my opinion, the two-child policy is necessary for our country from its national situation at present and to some extent, this policy is a kind of adjustment of family planning policy to the times and the features of the development of society. However, I think that the complete considerations are not taken into by government, which makes the two-child policy a hot debate in public and may also lead to the coming embarrassment and a series of problems in development of society. Considering that there are so many problems to be solved, I also think a variety of secure policies such as the health insurance, financial assisstance of education, be taken into effect to help citizens handle with the problems the second child causes. Only when the government provides safeguard for the people, will there be possibility and practical effect to mitigate problems like the population aging, the gender imbalance, acquiring stable economic development and other issues
CaiJie：Two-child policy, once introduced to the society, sparked a hot debate among the public. As far as I am concerned, the application of two-child policy is a double-edged sword, which has it own advantage, whereas negative effects are also unavoidable.
First of all, considering the advantages, we could divide the benefits of two-child policy mainly into two parts: national development and personal families. The application of two-child policy will inevitably make a contribution to the economic development in terms of labor market in the future. As is known to all of us, the economical miracles of China in the past 30 years largely depends on the ―Demographic Dividend‖ that equip most of Chinese products with price edge. However, nowadays, the so-called ―Demographic Dividend‖ is disappearing so that those coastal enterprises become less attractive. It has become common phenomenon that some with physical labor but high-paid positions are still vacant without applicants. Meanwhile, the ―Demographic Dividend‖ is flowing to those less-developed countries around China such as Vietnam and Laos. What is predictable is that the two-child policy could relieve downward pressure caused by the shortage of labor force in some degree.
4. Conclusion
5. Main reference(five complete materials)
5.1 Prep for China’s two-child consumption engine
5.2 China's new two-child policy law takes effect
5.3 China media: Two-child policy?
5.4 China’s Two-Child Policy Takes Effect, But Couples Apprehensive Amid Economic Slowdown
5.5
6. Slides of the PowerPoint
2015关于开放二胎政策看法的调查报告 篇一
一、调查目的
《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》明确：坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策，逐步调整完善生育政策，促进人口长期均衡发展。随着国家放开单独二胎政策的实行，已经有几个省份具体实行单独二胎政策，其余省份也都在准备中，并将适时实行单独二胎政策，河北省也将于近期放开单独二胎。计划生育是我国长期基本国策，本次单独二胎政策也是根据我国人口结构的现状以及人们的需求来制定实施的。放开单独二胎的政策会对人们的生活带来哪些具体的影响呢，这些影响需要政府实施哪些措施来应对呢。人口数量的变化带来的影响需要政府采取一系列措施来解决，这对于改善民生、促进社会和谐具有重要的意义。通过我的这次调查得出的个人结论，为政府机构提供个人见解，为解决放开单独二胎带来的一系列影响提供一些依据。
二、调查时间：
2015年3月20日至4月10日
三、调查地点：
宁晋县人口和计划生育局(凤凰路256号)。
四、调查范围：
来宁晋县人口和计划生育局办理各种业务的每个人。
五、调查方法：
采用问卷调查的方式
六、调查结果
调查结果：
通过对放开单独二胎政策的看法，83%的被调查者表示支持，孩子们可以有个伴，互相照应，10%的被调查者不支持，并认为现在中国人口数量太多了，另外还有7%的被调查者表示还没有想好;对于你是否会考虑生二胎的问题，63%的被调查者表示会考虑生，22%表示不会考虑生育二胎，养孩子成本太高了，同时也有15%的被调查者表示不一定，视情况而定;对于你为什么想生二
胎的看法，80%的被调查者持有希望儿女双全，年老多个依靠的观点，65%的被调查者表示这是遵照老一辈家长的希望，另外有55%被调查者认为想生二胎的理由是子承家业，传宗接代;对于你为什么不想生二胎的看法，82%的被调查者认为当下生活成本高，多一个孩子家里开销增加太多，33%的被调查者则担心给孩子的爱不均衡，难免会出现偏心，另有12%的被调查者表示更喜欢三口之家的生活，62%的被调查者会选择独生子女作为自己配偶，75%的被调查者担心孩子以后的受教育问题，80%的被调查者担心孩子多了以后的医疗问题。 希望政府通过以上调查结果采取措施解决这几个方面的问题，第一，未来人口增加所造成的的医疗压力;第二，未来人口增加造成的基础教育压力问题;第三，做好单独二胎政策宣传解释工作。
篇二
一、现状分析
中国是一个人口大国。由2010年的人口普查数据可知，我国现有人口共13.397亿，2010年末全国总人口达13.410亿人。在这样的一个人口基数下，我国的人口老年化也在加剧。据《2011年至2015年老年事业发展纲要》的数据显示：目前我国老年人口占总人口的比例
在10.2%以上，60岁以上的老人超过1.3亿，是世界上老年人最多的国家，占世界老年人口的1/5，占整个亚洲老年人口的1/2。而在2010年年底我国60岁及其以上的人口比重已经达到20.38%。据相关专家推测，在2020年将达到27.53%，2030年更将是37.55%，2040年将为45.00%。所以我国将进入“超老年型”社会。中国迅速上升的老年人口比例，对比为数不多的人均收入，难免会让我们想到未来养老难的问题。
二、农村生育观原因分析
1、计划生育观
今天的农村生活水平大幅度提高了，人们有了更多的积蓄来干别的事，但和城市人口相比，农村人口文化素质偏低，思想不够解放，眼界不够开阔以及农村传统思想的病根，在计划生育观上仍存在严重问题。通过调查，接近90%的村民认为农村不该多生，在多数城里人看来，只有一个才不叫多生，但70%的村民认为农村家庭两个孩子最好，尤其是一男一女，她们看来两个并不为多。在对待农村生育与中国人口压力的问题上，35%的村民肯定农村超生会增重国家人口压力，应该严格控制农村计划生育，只有严格符合条件的夫妇才可以生二胎，然而65%的村民给出他们的看法，认为国家人口压力与农村无关，只要人家有能力抚养孩子，可以接受罚款就让生育二胎。
中国人口压力因农村超生而加大。这是最为严重也最为明显的一个问题。我国是一个人口大国，同时也是一个农业大国，农民是国家人口的主要组成部分，国家的发展关系着农民的衣食住行，农村的落后制约着国家的改革发展与创新。对中国而言，农村是其兴衰的命脉。我国的资源总量并不少，但为何我们只能排在发展中国家的行列?显然是人多!计划生育是针对中国人口压力大而制定的一项国策，我们应该积极响应号召，严格按照要求，有计划的生育。
MATERIAL 1
COMMENTARY / WORLD Prep for China’s two-child consumption engine
BY KEYU JIN
JAN 8, 2016
ARTICLE HISTORY
LONDON – The announcement in October that China is terminating its one-child policy marks the end of a 37-year historical aberration that has accelerated the country’s demographic aging by decades. The social and economic consequences of the authorities’ drastic population controls, which reduced the average fertility rate in urban households from about three in 1970 to just over one by 1982, have been dramatic. The question now is whether, and to what extent, the country’s new two-child policy will mitigate those consequences.
The impact of the two-child policy is likely to be just as far-reaching — and, overall, much more positive — than that of the one-child rule. This is especially true in the long term, but the effects will become apparent even in the relatively shorter term. One key reason is that an increase in the number of children per household will force a reduction in the aggregate savings rate, fulfilling a long-standing macroeconomic goal.
China’s current saving rate is so high that it is often blamed for fueling global imbalances and driving down interest rates worldwide. Moreover, it is a major obstacle in China’s ongoing transition from an export-led growth model to one based on domestic consumption and services. The two-child policy may prove indispensable in propelling this transition — a process that will begin sooner than most observers anticipate.
So far, economists have focused largely on the impending shifts in China’s demographic structure. Driven by the one-child policy, the share of China’s population under the age of 20 fell from 51 percent in 1970 to 27 percent by 2010, while the share of people aged 60 and up rose from 7 percent to 14 percent. As a result, the median age increased from about 20 to 35.
As retirees increasingly outnumber working-age people, the pressure on today’s younger generation will intensify. Indeed, in the coming years, each member of the post-1980s one-child generation will need to support two older people, on average.
Of course, when the two-child generation becomes middle-aged, its members will each have to support only one elderly person, on average, alleviating the economic pressure associated with such a high old-age dependency ratio. But that will take a few decades. In the meantime, the post-1980s one-child generation will be supporting not only the elderly, but also a higher number of young people.
Although this will undoubtedly be tough for the one-child generation, an unintended side effect will be a surge in consumption, as its members will have little choice but to spend a lot more. A comparison of families that had twins under the one-child policy and those that had just one child offers an indication of the scale of the change in consumption (though, of course, the inability of twins’ parents to spread out consumption spending over time means that it is not a perfect representation).
In terms of saving, urban households with two children saved 12.8 percent of their incomes, on average, in 2009, compared to 21.3 percent in families with an only child. The difference is large across all income groups.
The child-fueled boost in household consumption will undoubtedly affect some sectors more than others. At first, the surge in the number of children will boost the performance of stocks in children’s books, toys and bicycles. As that generation ages, demand for housing, life insurance and pharmaceuticals will increase substantially.
One of the biggest differences will be expenditure on education. According to the 2009 urban household survey, a one-child household in China spends an average of 10.6 percent of its total income on education, whereas a household with twins spends 17.3 percent. As the number of households with two children increases, this change alone could cause the aggregate saving rate in China to drop by as much as 7 to 10 percentage points, from 30 percent today to about 22 percent over the next 10 years.
There is, however, a caveat. More children also mean less education investment per child, which could lead to lower human-capital attainment. Indeed, the average twin receives far less support after age 15 than the average only child, creating large differences in education outcomes. Twins are 40 percent more likely to go to a vocational high school than only children.
Nonetheless, China’s shift to a two-child policy is badly needed — and not just because it will achieve the intended long-term goal of balancing the country’s demographic structure. While there are certainly pitfalls, including a difficult transition period, the policy could prove to be a boon to China’s efforts to put its economy on a more stable long-term growth path.
Keyu Jin, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader and a member of the Richemont Group Advisory Board. Project Syndicate, 2016
MATERIAL 2
China's new two-child policy law takes effect
January 1, 2016 1:13 AM
Married couples in China will from Friday be allowed to have two children, after concerns over an aging population and shrinking workforce ushered in an end to the country's controversial one-child policy.
The change, which was announced in October by the ruling Communist Party, takes effect from January 1, 2016, Beijing's official Xin Hua news agency reported over the weekend.
The "one child policy", instituted in the late 1970s, restricted most couples to only a single offspring through a system of fines for violators and even forced abortions.
For years, authorities argued that it was a key contributor to China's economic boom and had prevented 400 million births.
Rural families were allowed two children if the first was a girl, while ethnic minorities were allowed an extra offspring, leading some to dub it a "one-and-a-half child" policy.
But it also led to heart-rending tales of loss for would-be parents, and prompted sex-selective abortions or infanticide targeting girls because of a centuries-old social preference for boys.
China's population -- the world's largest at 1.37 billion -- is now ageing rapidly and has severe gender imbalances, all while the country's workforce is shrinking.
Under the new law, married couples are now allowed to have a second child, but the legislation maintains limits on additional births.
Around three million extra babies will be born each year over the next five years as a result, officials from the National Health and Family Planning Commission predicted at a briefing in November.
This would add a total of about 30 million people to the labour force by 2050, officials said.
Still, experts say the shift is likely too little, too late to address China's looming population crisis.
Others warn that many Chinese couples do not want more children, particularly given the expense, and the effects of the change remain unclear.
MATERIAL 3 China media: Two-child policy? 13 February 2015
Papers round on a proposal that couples should have no fewer than two children to deal with China's ageing population problem.
China relaxed its longstanding one-child policy in 2013 in response to lower population growth, allowing couples to have two children if either parent is an only child.
But the change has attracted fewer applications than expected, and the birth rate has remained stagnant.
In response, a senior family planning official in northern Shanxi province believes the one-child policy should be fully relaxed, with all married couples being strongly encouraged have two children.
The comments by Mei Zhiqiang, deputy head of the province's family planning commission, sparked a heated debate in the papers and social media.
While acknowledging the problem raised by Mr Mei, the Global Times strongly rejects his suggestion, arguing that the authorities need to learn the lessons of the past and use less coercive family planning measures.
"It would be better to use encouragement and incentives that will be more easily accepted by the people" to promote the new aim of boosting the birth rate, a commentary in the paper argues.
The Beijing News agrees, saying Mr Mei's proposal is "a swing to another extreme" of birth control, insisting that the government has "no right to force the people to give birth".
For the Dahe Daily, the answer lies in easing the financial burden on married couples in order to encourage them to have a second child. Genuinely peaceful?
In international news, papers are wary of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "peaceful intentions" after he called for a public debate on changing his country's pacifist constitution in a key policy speech on Thursday.
Under its post-war constitution, Japan is barred from using force to resolve conflicts except in defence of the homeland, and Mr Abe has in the past pushed for a greater role abroad for his country's Self-Defence Forces - a drive viewed with suspicion in Beijing.
A front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily believes that Mr Abe's speech is another step towards changing Japan's security policy.
While acknowledging that that Japan has provided aid to other Asian countries and actively participated in peacekeeping efforts to build a "peaceful image", it voices concern that Japan may start to "interfere" in international affairs together with the US if its military's role is expanded.
"It is difficult to say if this move is really for the sake of peace," says the paper, urging that Japan instead "reflect on its history if it really wants to promote peace".
An opinion piece on China Radio International accuses Mr Abe of "using anti-terrorism as an excuse in breaking through the constitution" after two Japanese hostages were killed by the Islamic State militant group.
Power poetry
And finally, a senior provincial official has won media attention after presenting a 6,000-word official report written in the form of Chinese classical poetry, the Beijing News reports.
The work report given by Li Zhi, of Shanxi province, to a provincial meeting was full of "descriptive language", but short on "figures and data", according to the daily.
Opinions on Mr Li's work among internet users varied, with some praising it as an innovative attempt to make the genre more interesting, while others lamented the dearth of facts.
Commentaries in the papers, however, were not impressed at all. "Although the style of language is refreshing, it does not really help improve the quality of the work report," the Beijing Times grumbles.
According to an opinion piece in the Beijing Youth Daily, Mr Li's effort was "full of empty words", and quite simply a "failure".
"Yes there is a need to change the report-writing style," it concedes, "but the aim should be to change officials' habit of exaggerating or using meaningless rhetoric, as they should let the facts speak for themselves".
MATERIAL 4
China’s Two-Child Policy Takes Effect, But Couples Apprehensive Amid Economic Slowdown
BY VISHAKHA SONAWANE ON 01/01/16 AT 6:25 AM
China’s two-child policy took effect Friday, allowing married couples to have more than one child for the first time since 1980. The country’s ruling Communist Party announced in October that it would abolish its controversial one-child policy beginning Jan. 1, amid concerns of imbalanced age demographics and a declining labor force.
China, the world’s most populous country with a population of 1.357 billion as of 2013, introduced the one-child policy in 1978 and formally instituted it on Sept. 18, 1980. Couples who did not follow the rule had to face disciplinary measures ranging from fines to loss of their jobs and even forced abortions.
China’s one-child policy prevented about 400 million births in the past 35 years — a factor that, Chinese authorities argue, led to the country’s economic boom. The communist nation allowed rural families to have a second child if the first was a girl and the policy was relaxed for ethnic minorities who could have an additional child. The one-child policy also reportedly led to sex-selective abortions or female infanticide because of a preference for boys.
Under the two-child policy, a couple cannot have more than two children.
Despite the abolition of the one-child policy, however, only half of Chinese couples are willing to have two children, according to National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) research. Families in China have expressed concerns over financial instability as prices for housing and education surge, amid an economic slowdown, partly associated with the aging population and loss of productive labor.
When the one-child policy was implemented, only 5 percent of China’s total population was at least 65 years of age. At present, at least 123 million people, or 9 percent of the population, are elderly. According to a 2010 report released by a government think tank, China is poised to become the world’s most aged society in 2030. And by 2050, senior citizens will make up more than 30 percent of China’s total population.
About 3 million additional babies are estimated to be born each year over the next five years following the implementation of the two-child policy, NHFC authorities reportedly said in November. This would add about 30 million people to China’s workforce by 2050, authorities said.
然而，议论中包含的心情却很复杂：有人雀跃，多年的梦想终于成真。然而，更多的人尤其是人 到中年的―70后‖们陷入了更谨慎的思考。再生一个孩子，你真的敢吗？一个孩子已让我们的工作 生活焦头烂额，如果再添一个，怎么办？家庭情况、身体状况是否允许？配套政策有否跟上？大宝会 欣然接受小宝吗？如果排斥，父母如何做好爱的平衡，让双宝都能健康成长。 有一万个想再生的理由，也有一万个不想再生的理由
要而现实的情况却是，一直处于高位运行的房价尚无下行的迹象、扶养教育孩子的高成本也不见有下降的趋势。多生一个孩子，就意味着要增加一倍的家庭经济负担，因而很多育龄夫妇依然处于“不愿生、不敢生”的境地。想未来人口年龄结构趋于合理，人力资源不至于断档稀缺，当前要从根本上解决的问题，不仅仅是要放开生育政策，而是要让育龄夫妇“愿意生、敢于生”。
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3. 你们组的阅读报告（具体几个章节你们自己定，可以分成
对你们所分配的话题背景的介绍、你们所阅读到的有关此话题的不同观点的介绍，对这些不同观点的原因或者异同点的分析和评价等，你们自己的观点，你们认为的原因或者解决办法等，结论部分等等这么写部分，具体哪些你们小组自己商量决定，但是要体现这个阅读、理解、分析、综合、比较、评价、反思等批判性过程）
4. reading materials
5. PPT
题目
Abstract:
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Keywords:
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正文部分用小四新罗马字体，英文的，
湖北工业大学 外国语学院
阅读团队实践报告
班级: 班级: 学号: 学号: 1311011630 姓名: 蔡杰 姓名: 刘学舟
班级: 班级: 学号: 学号: 姓名: 姓名：
注：排名无先后主次之分，按照姓氏拼音首字母顺序由左至右排列
摘 要
自中华人民共和国成立以来，从计划生育到二孩政策，我国的生育政策随着时代的发展和社会的变化在不断改变。为了以对二孩政策的深入分析和解读，提升批判性思维能力，本文主要通过介绍二胎政策的内容，分析二孩政策的时代背景，从经济、家庭等角度解读二胎政策的影响以及阐明小组成员对二孩政策的异同观点等方面对二孩政策进行深层次的理解，从而弄清二孩政策的必要性。通过分析讨论，我们发现二孩政策的出台有一定的必要性和重要性，但其中仍有许多问题需要改善和解决。
关键词：二孩政策；批判性思维；时代背景；影响；必要性
Abstract
Since the foundation of the People's Republic of China, from two children to the family planning policy, China's two-child policy changes as the development of The times and social change in constant. To promote critical thinking ability by in-depth analysis and interpretation of the two-child policy, this article carries on the deep understanding, so as to make clear the necessity of two child policy mainly through the introduction of the content of a two-child policy, analyzing the background of two-child policy, and from many aspects like economy, the influence of family two-child policy and clarifying the similarities and differences of team members on two-child policy. Through analysis and discussion, we find that two-child policy has certain necessity and importance, but there are still many problems that need to be improved and solved.
Contents
1. Brief introduction to the two-child policy
1.1 The definition of the two-child policy
1.2 The laws and regulations of the two-child policy
2. The background of the two-child policy
3. The existent necessity of the two-child policy
3.1 The views of the west media
3.2 The pros and cons of the two-child policy
3.3 Different opinions from the group
4. Conclusion
5. Main reference(five complete materials)
6. Slides of the PowerPoint
1. Brief introduction to the two-child policy
The two-child policy is a family planning policy of China in which a couple can have at most two children. In the past China's family planning policy required a couple to have one child, but allowed the couple to have the second child under the specific conditions. At the same time, if the couple have already two kids, they are not allowed to have more babies any more.
2. The background of the two-child policy
① Because of such reasons as the high cost of the second child, the shift of the outlook on childbirth, and the lack of security and support of medical and educational insurance from government, the practice of the separate two-child encounter coldness, and the fertility rates has lowed to a dangerous degree.
② For the decreasing number of new birth and the extension of life span, there will be less and less young people, and increasing stand-out problems of the aging of population in society.
③With the end of the baby boomer and the aging of population, Surplus labor force decrease gradually, and the Demographic dividend disappear gradually.
④With the frequent accidents happening and many other unpredictable factors, the number of families losing the only child have risen, which has caused the psychologically heavy pressure in society.
⑤For the fast development of high technology and the influence of traditional outlook—boys are more important than girls, the gender imbalance becomes serious, which inevitably will lead to the severe crisis of population in the future.
3. The existent necessity of the two-child policy
3.1 The views of the west media
In spite of many facts like that More children also mean less education investment per child, and that in the coming years, each member of the post-1980s one-child generation will need to support two older people, on average, China’s shift to a two-child policy is badly
needed — and not just because it will achieve the intended long-term goal of balancing the country’s demographic structure. While there are certainly pitfalls, including a difficult transition period, the policy could prove to be a boon to China’s efforts to put its economy on a more stable long-term growth path. ----------Keyu Jin(a professor of economics at the London School of Economics)
Some experts say the shift is likely too little, too late to address China's looming population crisis. Others warn that many Chinese couples do not want more children, particularly given the expense, and the effects of the change remain unclear.
3.2 The pros and cons of the two-child policy
The pros: ①One-child policy for the Inhibition of imbalance between men and women, under the traditional ideas such as reasons, has led to many parents' ―selective birth‖, thus eventually gender imbalance problem. Now to fully open "two-child policy" can greatly reduce the occurrence of this problem.
②To mitigate the decreasing fertility rates of the population aging inevitably lead to the aging of population and the old aging of population, which has a direct impact on the financial sustainability of social security system. To open the two-child policy would ease population aging, and reduce the risk of society in the future.
The cons: ①National fiscal expenditure would increase after opening the two-child policy, and country will face a series of problems of population growth. Environmental capacity, the fiscal expenditure and public welfare system and some other macro levels will be under pressure with the increase of population.
②The increasing burden of the personal family, in today’s era of high price, leads to a fact that taking a child to adult needs huge cost. To open a second-child policy, for a average household, is a realistic problem that have to be taken into account
According to the data in sixth census, directly calculated results of the total fertility rate is 1.18, far below 2.1. In general, if the total fertility rate is lower than 2.1 (for developed countries), the newborn population is not enough to make up for the number of women and their mates.
3.3 Different opinions from the group
Liu Xuezhou: In my opinion, the two-child policy is necessary for our country from its national situation at present and to some extent, this policy is a kind of adjustment of family planning policy to the times and the features of the development of society. However, I think that the complete considerations are not taken into by government, which makes the two-child policy a hot debate in public and may also lead to the coming embarrassment and a series of problems in development of society. Considering that there are so many problems to be solved, I also think a variety of secure policies such as the health insurance, financial assisstance of education, be taken into effect to help citizens handle with the problems the second child causes. Only when the government provides safeguard for the people, will there be possibility and practical effect to mitigate problems like the population aging, the gender imbalance, acquiring stable economic development and other issues
CaiJie：Two-child policy, once introduced to the society, sparked a hot debate among the public. As far as I am concerned, the application of two-child policy is a double-edged sword, which has it own advantage, whereas negative effects are also unavoidable.
First of all, considering the advantages, we could divide the benefits of two-child policy mainly into two parts: national development and personal families. The application of two-child policy will inevitably make a contribution to the economic development in terms of labor market in the future. As is known to all of us, the economical miracles of China in the past 30 years largely depends on the ―Demographic Dividend‖ that equip most of Chinese products with price edge. However, nowadays, the so-called ―Demographic Dividend‖ is disappearing so that those coastal enterprises become less attractive. It has become common phenomenon that some with physical labor but high-paid positions are still vacant without applicants. Meanwhile, the ―Demographic Dividend‖ is flowing to those less-developed countries around China such as Vietnam and Laos. What is predictable is that the two-child policy could relieve downward pressure caused by the shortage of labor force in some degree.
4. Conclusion
5. Main reference(five complete materials)
5.1 Prep for China’s two-child consumption engine
5.2 China's new two-child policy law takes effect
5.3 China media: Two-child policy?
5.4 China’s Two-Child Policy Takes Effect, But Couples Apprehensive Amid Economic Slowdown
5.5
6. Slides of the PowerPoint
2015关于开放二胎政策看法的调查报告 篇一
一、调查目的
《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》明确：坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策，逐步调整完善生育政策，促进人口长期均衡发展。随着国家放开单独二胎政策的实行，已经有几个省份具体实行单独二胎政策，其余省份也都在准备中，并将适时实行单独二胎政策，河北省也将于近期放开单独二胎。计划生育是我国长期基本国策，本次单独二胎政策也是根据我国人口结构的现状以及人们的需求来制定实施的。放开单独二胎的政策会对人们的生活带来哪些具体的影响呢，这些影响需要政府实施哪些措施来应对呢。人口数量的变化带来的影响需要政府采取一系列措施来解决，这对于改善民生、促进社会和谐具有重要的意义。通过我的这次调查得出的个人结论，为政府机构提供个人见解，为解决放开单独二胎带来的一系列影响提供一些依据。
二、调查时间：
2015年3月20日至4月10日
三、调查地点：
宁晋县人口和计划生育局(凤凰路256号)。
四、调查范围：
来宁晋县人口和计划生育局办理各种业务的每个人。
五、调查方法：
采用问卷调查的方式
六、调查结果
调查结果：
通过对放开单独二胎政策的看法，83%的被调查者表示支持，孩子们可以有个伴，互相照应，10%的被调查者不支持，并认为现在中国人口数量太多了，另外还有7%的被调查者表示还没有想好;对于你是否会考虑生二胎的问题，63%的被调查者表示会考虑生，22%表示不会考虑生育二胎，养孩子成本太高了，同时也有15%的被调查者表示不一定，视情况而定;对于你为什么想生二
胎的看法，80%的被调查者持有希望儿女双全，年老多个依靠的观点，65%的被调查者表示这是遵照老一辈家长的希望，另外有55%被调查者认为想生二胎的理由是子承家业，传宗接代;对于你为什么不想生二胎的看法，82%的被调查者认为当下生活成本高，多一个孩子家里开销增加太多，33%的被调查者则担心给孩子的爱不均衡，难免会出现偏心，另有12%的被调查者表示更喜欢三口之家的生活，62%的被调查者会选择独生子女作为自己配偶，75%的被调查者担心孩子以后的受教育问题，80%的被调查者担心孩子多了以后的医疗问题。 希望政府通过以上调查结果采取措施解决这几个方面的问题，第一，未来人口增加所造成的的医疗压力;第二，未来人口增加造成的基础教育压力问题;第三，做好单独二胎政策宣传解释工作。
篇二
一、现状分析
中国是一个人口大国。由2010年的人口普查数据可知，我国现有人口共13.397亿，2010年末全国总人口达13.410亿人。在这样的一个人口基数下，我国的人口老年化也在加剧。据《2011年至2015年老年事业发展纲要》的数据显示：目前我国老年人口占总人口的比例
在10.2%以上，60岁以上的老人超过1.3亿，是世界上老年人最多的国家，占世界老年人口的1/5，占整个亚洲老年人口的1/2。而在2010年年底我国60岁及其以上的人口比重已经达到20.38%。据相关专家推测，在2020年将达到27.53%，2030年更将是37.55%，2040年将为45.00%。所以我国将进入“超老年型”社会。中国迅速上升的老年人口比例，对比为数不多的人均收入，难免会让我们想到未来养老难的问题。
二、农村生育观原因分析
1、计划生育观
今天的农村生活水平大幅度提高了，人们有了更多的积蓄来干别的事，但和城市人口相比，农村人口文化素质偏低，思想不够解放，眼界不够开阔以及农村传统思想的病根，在计划生育观上仍存在严重问题。通过调查，接近90%的村民认为农村不该多生，在多数城里人看来，只有一个才不叫多生，但70%的村民认为农村家庭两个孩子最好，尤其是一男一女，她们看来两个并不为多。在对待农村生育与中国人口压力的问题上，35%的村民肯定农村超生会增重国家人口压力，应该严格控制农村计划生育，只有严格符合条件的夫妇才可以生二胎，然而65%的村民给出他们的看法，认为国家人口压力与农村无关，只要人家有能力抚养孩子，可以接受罚款就让生育二胎。
中国人口压力因农村超生而加大。这是最为严重也最为明显的一个问题。我国是一个人口大国，同时也是一个农业大国，农民是国家人口的主要组成部分，国家的发展关系着农民的衣食住行，农村的落后制约着国家的改革发展与创新。对中国而言，农村是其兴衰的命脉。我国的资源总量并不少，但为何我们只能排在发展中国家的行列?显然是人多!计划生育是针对中国人口压力大而制定的一项国策，我们应该积极响应号召，严格按照要求，有计划的生育。
MATERIAL 1
COMMENTARY / WORLD Prep for China’s two-child consumption engine
BY KEYU JIN
JAN 8, 2016
ARTICLE HISTORY
LONDON – The announcement in October that China is terminating its one-child policy marks the end of a 37-year historical aberration that has accelerated the country’s demographic aging by decades. The social and economic consequences of the authorities’ drastic population controls, which reduced the average fertility rate in urban households from about three in 1970 to just over one by 1982, have been dramatic. The question now is whether, and to what extent, the country’s new two-child policy will mitigate those consequences.
The impact of the two-child policy is likely to be just as far-reaching — and, overall, much more positive — than that of the one-child rule. This is especially true in the long term, but the effects will become apparent even in the relatively shorter term. One key reason is that an increase in the number of children per household will force a reduction in the aggregate savings rate, fulfilling a long-standing macroeconomic goal.
China’s current saving rate is so high that it is often blamed for fueling global imbalances and driving down interest rates worldwide. Moreover, it is a major obstacle in China’s ongoing transition from an export-led growth model to one based on domestic consumption and services. The two-child policy may prove indispensable in propelling this transition — a process that will begin sooner than most observers anticipate.
So far, economists have focused largely on the impending shifts in China’s demographic structure. Driven by the one-child policy, the share of China’s population under the age of 20 fell from 51 percent in 1970 to 27 percent by 2010, while the share of people aged 60 and up rose from 7 percent to 14 percent. As a result, the median age increased from about 20 to 35.
As retirees increasingly outnumber working-age people, the pressure on today’s younger generation will intensify. Indeed, in the coming years, each member of the post-1980s one-child generation will need to support two older people, on average.
Of course, when the two-child generation becomes middle-aged, its members will each have to support only one elderly person, on average, alleviating the economic pressure associated with such a high old-age dependency ratio. But that will take a few decades. In the meantime, the post-1980s one-child generation will be supporting not only the elderly, but also a higher number of young people.
Although this will undoubtedly be tough for the one-child generation, an unintended side effect will be a surge in consumption, as its members will have little choice but to spend a lot more. A comparison of families that had twins under the one-child policy and those that had just one child offers an indication of the scale of the change in consumption (though, of course, the inability of twins’ parents to spread out consumption spending over time means that it is not a perfect representation).
In terms of saving, urban households with two children saved 12.8 percent of their incomes, on average, in 2009, compared to 21.3 percent in families with an only child. The difference is large across all income groups.
The child-fueled boost in household consumption will undoubtedly affect some sectors more than others. At first, the surge in the number of children will boost the performance of stocks in children’s books, toys and bicycles. As that generation ages, demand for housing, life insurance and pharmaceuticals will increase substantially.
One of the biggest differences will be expenditure on education. According to the 2009 urban household survey, a one-child household in China spends an average of 10.6 percent of its total income on education, whereas a household with twins spends 17.3 percent. As the number of households with two children increases, this change alone could cause the aggregate saving rate in China to drop by as much as 7 to 10 percentage points, from 30 percent today to about 22 percent over the next 10 years.
There is, however, a caveat. More children also mean less education investment per child, which could lead to lower human-capital attainment. Indeed, the average twin receives far less support after age 15 than the average only child, creating large differences in education outcomes. Twins are 40 percent more likely to go to a vocational high school than only children.
Nonetheless, China’s shift to a two-child policy is badly needed — and not just because it will achieve the intended long-term goal of balancing the country’s demographic structure. While there are certainly pitfalls, including a difficult transition period, the policy could prove to be a boon to China’s efforts to put its economy on a more stable long-term growth path.
Keyu Jin, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader and a member of the Richemont Group Advisory Board. Project Syndicate, 2016
MATERIAL 2
China's new two-child policy law takes effect
January 1, 2016 1:13 AM
Married couples in China will from Friday be allowed to have two children, after concerns over an aging population and shrinking workforce ushered in an end to the country's controversial one-child policy.
The change, which was announced in October by the ruling Communist Party, takes effect from January 1, 2016, Beijing's official Xin Hua news agency reported over the weekend.
The "one child policy", instituted in the late 1970s, restricted most couples to only a single offspring through a system of fines for violators and even forced abortions.
For years, authorities argued that it was a key contributor to China's economic boom and had prevented 400 million births.
Rural families were allowed two children if the first was a girl, while ethnic minorities were allowed an extra offspring, leading some to dub it a "one-and-a-half child" policy.
But it also led to heart-rending tales of loss for would-be parents, and prompted sex-selective abortions or infanticide targeting girls because of a centuries-old social preference for boys.
China's population -- the world's largest at 1.37 billion -- is now ageing rapidly and has severe gender imbalances, all while the country's workforce is shrinking.
Under the new law, married couples are now allowed to have a second child, but the legislation maintains limits on additional births.
Around three million extra babies will be born each year over the next five years as a result, officials from the National Health and Family Planning Commission predicted at a briefing in November.
This would add a total of about 30 million people to the labour force by 2050, officials said.
Still, experts say the shift is likely too little, too late to address China's looming population crisis.
Others warn that many Chinese couples do not want more children, particularly given the expense, and the effects of the change remain unclear.
MATERIAL 3 China media: Two-child policy? 13 February 2015
Papers round on a proposal that couples should have no fewer than two children to deal with China's ageing population problem.
China relaxed its longstanding one-child policy in 2013 in response to lower population growth, allowing couples to have two children if either parent is an only child.
But the change has attracted fewer applications than expected, and the birth rate has remained stagnant.
In response, a senior family planning official in northern Shanxi province believes the one-child policy should be fully relaxed, with all married couples being strongly encouraged have two children.
The comments by Mei Zhiqiang, deputy head of the province's family planning commission, sparked a heated debate in the papers and social media.
While acknowledging the problem raised by Mr Mei, the Global Times strongly rejects his suggestion, arguing that the authorities need to learn the lessons of the past and use less coercive family planning measures.
"It would be better to use encouragement and incentives that will be more easily accepted by the people" to promote the new aim of boosting the birth rate, a commentary in the paper argues.
The Beijing News agrees, saying Mr Mei's proposal is "a swing to another extreme" of birth control, insisting that the government has "no right to force the people to give birth".
For the Dahe Daily, the answer lies in easing the financial burden on married couples in order to encourage them to have a second child. Genuinely peaceful?
In international news, papers are wary of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "peaceful intentions" after he called for a public debate on changing his country's pacifist constitution in a key policy speech on Thursday.
Under its post-war constitution, Japan is barred from using force to resolve conflicts except in defence of the homeland, and Mr Abe has in the past pushed for a greater role abroad for his country's Self-Defence Forces - a drive viewed with suspicion in Beijing.
A front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily believes that Mr Abe's speech is another step towards changing Japan's security policy.
While acknowledging that that Japan has provided aid to other Asian countries and actively participated in peacekeeping efforts to build a "peaceful image", it voices concern that Japan may start to "interfere" in international affairs together with the US if its military's role is expanded.
"It is difficult to say if this move is really for the sake of peace," says the paper, urging that Japan instead "reflect on its history if it really wants to promote peace".
An opinion piece on China Radio International accuses Mr Abe of "using anti-terrorism as an excuse in breaking through the constitution" after two Japanese hostages were killed by the Islamic State militant group.
Power poetry
And finally, a senior provincial official has won media attention after presenting a 6,000-word official report written in the form of Chinese classical poetry, the Beijing News reports.
The work report given by Li Zhi, of Shanxi province, to a provincial meeting was full of "descriptive language", but short on "figures and data", according to the daily.
Opinions on Mr Li's work among internet users varied, with some praising it as an innovative attempt to make the genre more interesting, while others lamented the dearth of facts.
Commentaries in the papers, however, were not impressed at all. "Although the style of language is refreshing, it does not really help improve the quality of the work report," the Beijing Times grumbles.
According to an opinion piece in the Beijing Youth Daily, Mr Li's effort was "full of empty words", and quite simply a "failure".
"Yes there is a need to change the report-writing style," it concedes, "but the aim should be to change officials' habit of exaggerating or using meaningless rhetoric, as they should let the facts speak for themselves".
MATERIAL 4
China’s Two-Child Policy Takes Effect, But Couples Apprehensive Amid Economic Slowdown
BY VISHAKHA SONAWANE ON 01/01/16 AT 6:25 AM
China’s two-child policy took effect Friday, allowing married couples to have more than one child for the first time since 1980. The country’s ruling Communist Party announced in October that it would abolish its controversial one-child policy beginning Jan. 1, amid concerns of imbalanced age demographics and a declining labor force.
China, the world’s most populous country with a population of 1.357 billion as of 2013, introduced the one-child policy in 1978 and formally instituted it on Sept. 18, 1980. Couples who did not follow the rule had to face disciplinary measures ranging from fines to loss of their jobs and even forced abortions.
China’s one-child policy prevented about 400 million births in the past 35 years — a factor that, Chinese authorities argue, led to the country’s economic boom. The communist nation allowed rural families to have a second child if the first was a girl and the policy was relaxed for ethnic minorities who could have an additional child. The one-child policy also reportedly led to sex-selective abortions or female infanticide because of a preference for boys.
Under the two-child policy, a couple cannot have more than two children.
Despite the abolition of the one-child policy, however, only half of Chinese couples are willing to have two children, according to National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) research. Families in China have expressed concerns over financial instability as prices for housing and education surge, amid an economic slowdown, partly associated with the aging population and loss of productive labor.
When the one-child policy was implemented, only 5 percent of China’s total population was at least 65 years of age. At present, at least 123 million people, or 9 percent of the population, are elderly. According to a 2010 report released by a government think tank, China is poised to become the world’s most aged society in 2030. And by 2050, senior citizens will make up more than 30 percent of China’s total population.
About 3 million additional babies are estimated to be born each year over the next five years following the implementation of the two-child policy, NHFC authorities reportedly said in November. This would add about 30 million people to China’s workforce by 2050, authorities said.
然而，议论中包含的心情却很复杂：有人雀跃，多年的梦想终于成真。然而，更多的人尤其是人 到中年的―70后‖们陷入了更谨慎的思考。再生一个孩子，你真的敢吗？一个孩子已让我们的工作 生活焦头烂额，如果再添一个，怎么办？家庭情况、身体状况是否允许？配套政策有否跟上？大宝会 欣然接受小宝吗？如果排斥，父母如何做好爱的平衡，让双宝都能健康成长。 有一万个想再生的理由，也有一万个不想再生的理由
要而现实的情况却是，一直处于高位运行的房价尚无下行的迹象、扶养教育孩子的高成本也不见有下降的趋势。多生一个孩子，就意味着要增加一倍的家庭经济负担，因而很多育龄夫妇依然处于“不愿生、不敢生”的境地。想未来人口年龄结构趋于合理，人力资源不至于断档稀缺，当前要从根本上解决的问题，不仅仅是要放开生育政策，而是要让育龄夫妇“愿意生、敢于生”。
目录
1. Abstract （你们阅读报告的摘要，就是主要内容的总结）
2. Keywords （你们阅读报告的关键词）
3. 你们组的阅读报告（具体几个章节你们自己定，可以分成
对你们所分配的话题背景的介绍、你们所阅读到的有关此话题的不同观点的介绍，对这些不同观点的原因或者异同点的分析和评价等，你们自己的观点，你们认为的原因或者解决办法等，结论部分等等这么写部分，具体哪些你们小组自己商量决定，但是要体现这个阅读、理解、分析、综合、比较、评价、反思等批判性过程）
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题目
Abstract:
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Keywords:
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正文部分用小四新罗马字体，英文的，