金融危机对房地产的影响
摘要：
金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响主要是通过影响宏观经济增长进行传导的，金融危机使中国的出口增速放缓，影响了国民经济的增长，居民收入的增幅也有所下降，促使房地产市场持续调整。另外，在经济全球化背景下，金融危机还可以通过预期的变化对中国房地产市场产生影响，并使房地产企业的资金压力增大。对此，我们应警惕房价的大幅波动，正确对待金融创新，加强房地产贷款的风险防范和对金融业的监管，防范金融危机对房地产金融影响的扩大，并把握好经济发展的周期规律。
本文的内容，首先，分析在金融危机的大环境下，我们房地产业有一个怎么样的现状，指出现有房地产面临的困难与问题，为以后的分析提供支撑。其次，针对上章分析的情况，由现象到本质，逐步的分析，金融危机对房地产业有什么样的影响，它又是如何的影响房地产业的，这样，通过这层的分析，为下章如何应对金融危机的影响铺垫。接着就是针对以上分析的结论的基础上，针对情况提出一些相应的解决对策。最后，对以上的分析，做出一个总结。
关键词：金融危机 ；房地产市场 ； 影响
Abstract ：
The financial crisis is mainly carries on the conduction to China real estate market's influence through the influence macro economic growth, the financial crisis caused China's export speed-up to postpone, to affect the national economy growth, the increased range which the resident received has also dropped, urges the real estate market to adjust continually. Moreover, under the economic globalization background, the financial crisis may also have the influence through the anticipated change to China real estate market, and causes real estate enterprise's fund pressure build-up. Regarding this, we should be vigilant the house price the large fluctuation, treats the financial innovation correctly, strengthens the real estate loan the risk guard and to the financial industry supervision, the guard financial crisis to the real estate monetary effect expansion, and grasps the economic development the periodic law.
This article content, first, analyzes under financial crisis's environment, our real estate industry has what kind of present situation, pointed out the existing real estate faces the difficulty and the question, provide the support for the later analysis. Next, in view on chapter of analysis's situation, arrives at the essence from the phenomenon, the gradual analysis, what influence does the financial crisis have to the real
estate industry, how influence real estate is it also industry, like this, through this analysis, how to deal with financial crisis's influence upholstery for the next chapter. Is aims at the above analysis in the conclusion foundation, proposes some corresponding solution countermeasure in view of the situation. Finally, to the above analysis, makes a summary.
Key word: Financial crisis ；real estate market ；influence
目 录
[摘 要] „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„1 Abstract ：„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„2 1 绪 论 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„5
1.1 研究的目的及意义„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„5
1.2 研究的内容„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„6 2 金融危机下房地产现状 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„6
2.1 金融危机下房地产现状„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„6
2.2 房地产开发现状分析„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„8
2.2.1 房地产企业融资困难„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„8
2.2.2 房地产企业盈利能力显著下降„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„9
2.2.3 外资流入流出加剧房地产业风险„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„9
2.2.4 减少了我国房地产投机行为„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„9 3 金融危机对房地产影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„10
3.1 金融危机对房地产影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„10
3.1.1 金融危机对我国房地产需求方面的影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„10
3.1.2 金融危机对我国房地产供给方面的影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„13
3.1.3 金融危机背景下我国房地产市场价格的变动趋势 „„„„„„„„„15
3.2 金融危机对房地产市场的影响途径 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„16
3.2.1金融危机对房地产市场的影响，主要通过影响宏观经济增长进行传导„16
3.2.2金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响，还可以通过预期产生作用„„„„16 4 应对金融危机采取的对策 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„18
4.1中央银行必须关注资产价格，并适时有所作为„„„„„„„„„„„„18
4.2 审慎监管、发展房地产金融 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„19
4.3 防止新的泡沫生成 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„20 5 结 论„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„20 参考文献 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„21 致 谢 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„22
1绪论
1.1 研究的目的及意义
2007年1月17日，美国第二大次级按揭房贷专业机构新世纪金融（New Century Financial Corp.）发布预亏报告称“对于在房屋贷款违约和拖欠中所遭受损失的严重程度，公司未能正确估计”，并宣布当月亏损740万美元。消息公布后，该公司股价一路下跌。1月17日~3月13日，新世纪金融股价从30.4美元/股下跌到0.845美元/股，市值缩水接近97%，4月2日，公司申请破产。新世纪金融的破产引发了美国次贷危机，而美国次贷危机又引发了全球性的金融危机。在这场声势浩大的金融危机中，各个产业都受到了影响，作为国民经济支柱产业的房地产业更是受到沉重打击。2007年人们称之为中国房地产最后疯狂的年代，无论是开发商还是购房者在房地产风和日丽的10年中似乎忘记了市场的基本规律。国家政策的调控提前将存在泡沫隐患的房地产带入了调整期，2007年第四季度开始，信贷紧缩政策的影响逐渐显露，不断升温的房价开始回落，伴随这一回落的还有商品房的成交量。2008年，国际经济环境的全面衰退迹象逐渐明显，国内经济也受到较大的影响，在持续紧缩的信贷政策下，房地产行业发展减速明显，行业内调整的深度与广度加大，资源整合的力度加强，整个行业伴随经济调整进入新一轮的全面调整期。因此，研究金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响对于中国未来房地产市场可
金融危机对房地产的影响
摘要：
金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响主要是通过影响宏观经济增长进行传导的，金融危机使中国的出口增速放缓，影响了国民经济的增长，居民收入的增幅也有所下降，促使房地产市场持续调整。另外，在经济全球化背景下，金融危机还可以通过预期的变化对中国房地产市场产生影响，并使房地产企业的资金压力增大。对此，我们应警惕房价的大幅波动，正确对待金融创新，加强房地产贷款的风险防范和对金融业的监管，防范金融危机对房地产金融影响的扩大，并把握好经济发展的周期规律。
本文的内容，首先，分析在金融危机的大环境下，我们房地产业有一个怎么样的现状，指出现有房地产面临的困难与问题，为以后的分析提供支撑。其次，针对上章分析的情况，由现象到本质，逐步的分析，金融危机对房地产业有什么样的影响，它又是如何的影响房地产业的，这样，通过这层的分析，为下章如何应对金融危机的影响铺垫。接着就是针对以上分析的结论的基础上，针对情况提出一些相应的解决对策。最后，对以上的分析，做出一个总结。
关键词：金融危机 ；房地产市场 ； 影响
Abstract ：
The financial crisis is mainly carries on the conduction to China real estate market's influence through the influence macro economic growth, the financial crisis caused China's export speed-up to postpone, to affect the national economy growth, the increased range which the resident received has also dropped, urges the real estate market to adjust continually. Moreover, under the economic globalization background, the financial crisis may also have the influence through the anticipated change to China real estate market, and causes real estate enterprise's fund pressure build-up. Regarding this, we should be vigilant the house price the large fluctuation, treats the financial innovation correctly, strengthens the real estate loan the risk guard and to the financial industry supervision, the guard financial crisis to the real estate monetary effect expansion, and grasps the economic development the periodic law.
This article content, first, analyzes under financial crisis's environment, our real estate industry has what kind of present situation, pointed out the existing real estate faces the difficulty and the question, provide the support for the later analysis. Next, in view on chapter of analysis's situation, arrives at the essence from the phenomenon, the gradual analysis, what influence does the financial crisis have to the real
estate industry, how influence real estate is it also industry, like this, through this analysis, how to deal with financial crisis's influence upholstery for the next chapter. Is aims at the above analysis in the conclusion foundation, proposes some corresponding solution countermeasure in view of the situation. Finally, to the above analysis, makes a summary.
Key word: Financial crisis ；real estate market ；influence
目 录
[摘 要] „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„1 Abstract ：„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„2 1 绪 论 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„5
1.1 研究的目的及意义„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„5
1.2 研究的内容„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„6 2 金融危机下房地产现状 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„6
2.1 金融危机下房地产现状„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„6
2.2 房地产开发现状分析„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„8
2.2.1 房地产企业融资困难„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„8
2.2.2 房地产企业盈利能力显著下降„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„9
2.2.3 外资流入流出加剧房地产业风险„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„9
2.2.4 减少了我国房地产投机行为„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„9 3 金融危机对房地产影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„10
3.1 金融危机对房地产影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„10
3.1.1 金融危机对我国房地产需求方面的影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„10
3.1.2 金融危机对我国房地产供给方面的影响 „„„„„„„„„„„„„13
3.1.3 金融危机背景下我国房地产市场价格的变动趋势 „„„„„„„„„15
3.2 金融危机对房地产市场的影响途径 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„16
3.2.1金融危机对房地产市场的影响，主要通过影响宏观经济增长进行传导„16
3.2.2金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响，还可以通过预期产生作用„„„„16 4 应对金融危机采取的对策 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„18
4.1中央银行必须关注资产价格，并适时有所作为„„„„„„„„„„„„18
4.2 审慎监管、发展房地产金融 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„19
4.3 防止新的泡沫生成 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„20 5 结 论„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„20 参考文献 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„21 致 谢 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„22
1绪论
1.1 研究的目的及意义
2007年1月17日，美国第二大次级按揭房贷专业机构新世纪金融（New Century Financial Corp.）发布预亏报告称“对于在房屋贷款违约和拖欠中所遭受损失的严重程度，公司未能正确估计”，并宣布当月亏损740万美元。消息公布后，该公司股价一路下跌。1月17日~3月13日，新世纪金融股价从30.4美元/股下跌到0.845美元/股，市值缩水接近97%，4月2日，公司申请破产。新世纪金融的破产引发了美国次贷危机，而美国次贷危机又引发了全球性的金融危机。在这场声势浩大的金融危机中，各个产业都受到了影响，作为国民经济支柱产业的房地产业更是受到沉重打击。2007年人们称之为中国房地产最后疯狂的年代，无论是开发商还是购房者在房地产风和日丽的10年中似乎忘记了市场的基本规律。国家政策的调控提前将存在泡沫隐患的房地产带入了调整期，2007年第四季度开始，信贷紧缩政策的影响逐渐显露，不断升温的房价开始回落，伴随这一回落的还有商品房的成交量。2008年，国际经济环境的全面衰退迹象逐渐明显，国内经济也受到较大的影响，在持续紧缩的信贷政策下，房地产行业发展减速明显，行业内调整的深度与广度加大，资源整合的力度加强，整个行业伴随经济调整进入新一轮的全面调整期。因此，研究金融危机对中国房地产市场的影响对于中国未来房地产市场可