《研究生英语精读教程》(第三版下)
中国人民大学出版社
Part Summary
[1~2]
John Tierney outlines the bet and the differences between the two sides.Two intellectual schools debate whether the world is getting better or going to the dogs.
Part Summary
[3~4]
the doomster and his proposition
Erhrich predicted that "before 1985 mankind will enter an age of scarcity" in which "the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be nearing depletion".
Part Summary
[5~6]
the boomster and his point of view
Simon believes that population growth constitutes not a crisis but a boon that will ultimately mean a cleaner environment and a healthier humanity.
Part Summary
[7~9]
How the bet came into being.
Part Summary
[10-11]
Erhrich's predictions and the reality
Ehrlich was right about world population. Yet somehow the average person is healthier and wealthier. And things haven't run out yet.
Part Summary
[12~20]
Simon's opposite propositions towards Erhrich's predictions
Simon believed that human ingenuity could indefinitely expand the planet's carrying capacity.
Part Summary
[21~23]
Simon had never enjoyed Ehrlich's academic success, when it came to winning over popularity.
Many scientists are uncomfortable with his sweeping optimism - there is no guarantee that past trends will continue - but the consensus has been shifting against Ehrlich's idea of population growth as the great evil.
Part Summary
[24~26]
The bet ended in Simon's success due to the decline in price
Part Summary
[27-28]
New problems do exist, but there will be a way out.
Text Summary
What is the relationship between mankind and the earth? There was a fierce debate between Paul R. Ehrlich, an ecologist, and Julian L. Simon, an economist. Their debate in nature is between doomsters and boomsters over a view of the planet's ultimate limits and a vision of humanity's destiny. Ehrlich believed that population growth would result in depletion of
resources. However, Simon held the idea that the resources were not finite. With the population growth, more people would produce more bright ideas to solve the problem. The key point of Simon's argument was that human ingenuity could indefinitely expand the planet's carrying capacity while Ehrlich's idea about the world was that a gigantic population crash would inevitably occur. From the debate it may be concluded that the danger does exist, yet there is a way out.
全文翻译
为地球的未来下赌注
输赢岂能赌资计兴亡自是人心系
节编自《纽约时报杂志》
约翰·蒂尔尼
全文翻译
[1] 1980年，一位生态学家与一位经济学家就五种金属的未来价格打赌1 000美元。与此攸关者何止千元——其中有对地球最终极限的看法，有对人类命运的设想，一位看见的是杀虫剂渗入地下水，而另一位眼中则有农场上简仓内装满了创记录的大丰收；一位所见的是热带雨林被大批毁坏，而另一位已看到人们寿命的延长。
[2] 现在，这两个人分头领导着两个思想派别——有时被称作毁灭论者和兴旺论者，这两大派为世界是在蒸蒸日上还是在走向毁灭而争论不休。
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[3] 生态学家保罗 · R·埃利希， 56岁，自从 1968年发表《人口炸弹》一书以来一直是世界较知名的科学家之一。该书销售量为两百多万本。如果埃利希不是在斯坦福大学教书或研究蝴蝶的话，那就可以发现他在搞讲座，参加领奖或在 ―今日 ‖节目中露面。他是悲观论者。
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[4] 《人口炸弹》一书是这样开头的：―养活所有人类的战斗已经结束。 20世纪 70年代将死于饥饿者达亿万之数。‖埃利希写道：―什么也防止不了世界死亡的大幅度增长。‖1974年，他预言道：―1985年以前，人类将进入一个匮乏的时代 ‖，在这个时代，―许多主要矿物供开发的储藏量将被耗尽。‖
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[5] 经济学家朱利安 · L·西蒙， 59岁，是马里兰大学的教授。过去十年来他的观点一直影响着对华盛顿政策的形成，但他却从未在学术上或知名度上有埃利希那样的成就。他是乐观论者。
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[6] 西蒙认为，人口增长不是危机，而最终将意味着大有裨益于更洁
净的环境和更健康的人类。未来的世界将更美好，因为将有更多的人提供更聪明的思想。人类的进步是无限的，因为地球上的资源不是有限的。
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[7] 1980年，当西蒙在《科学》杂志上谈他对未来的幸福憧憬时，他的文章引来了大量愤怒的书信。一位被激怒的埃利希提供了简单的计算：地球的资源不得不按当时情况每年以 7 500万人的速度而增加的人口来分配，这超过了地球的 ―承载能力 ‖——地球上食品、淡水和矿物的储藏量。随着资源的更加短缺，商品一定会昂贵起来，这是不可避免的。
[8] 西蒙以挑战的方式作了答复。选出任何一种自然资源——谷类、石油、煤、木材、金属——和任何一个未来的日期。如果随着世界人口的增长资源将变得更加短缺，那么资源的价格也要上涨。西蒙要求以打赌的方式肯定价格反而会下降。
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[9] 埃利希接受了西蒙的挑战。1980年 10月，他就五种金属——铬、铜、镍、锡和钨——赌 1 000美元。如果 1990年在排除通货膨胀因素之后这五种金属的总价格结果将高于 1 000美元，差额将由西蒙付给他。如果价格下降，埃利希将付钱给西蒙。合同签好了，而至今仍从未见面的埃利希和西蒙在整个 80年代继续互相攻击。
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[10] 埃利希对世界人口的预测是正确的。现有世界人口 53亿，比他发表的《人口炸弹》一书时多 18亿。然而不知为什么，普通人却比以前更健康、更富裕了。婴儿死亡率下降了，估计寿命延长了，这在第三世界尤为显著。在遭受战乱、旱灾和灾难性的农业政策的国家里确实发生过饥荒，但是总的食品产量却超过人口的增长。专家们一致认为，与 1968年相比，今日的第三世界普通人的营养状况要更好些。算账的日子将不得不重新排定。
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[11] 埃利希所持观点是有限世界的显而易见的主张：资源会消耗殆尽。环境保护论者们所用的一条标语将此表达得再好不过了：―我们不是从父辈那儿继承地球；我们是从孩子们那儿借用它。‖这一观点决定了我们的行为方式：我们将报纸捆扎保留起来就是为了避免耗尽造纸用的木材。相反的论点远非如此凭直觉即可令人信服。该论点一般只
包括一个简单的问题：资源为什么还没被用完 ?
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[12] 当朱利安 ·西蒙在 60年代末期听到有关人口过剩的不祥预测时，他开始撰文阐明说服妇女少生孩子的必要性，但是就在那时他读到的一些研究表明，总体来说，人口快速增长的国家并不比其他国家更困难，许多国家生活甚至更好。
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[13] 他也发现这样的证据，即自然资源的价格自从 1820年以来的确是下降了。与上一世纪相比，今天的普通工人用一小时的工资可买更多的煤，正如他可以买更多的金属和食品一样。随着人口的增长，物资也丰富起来。
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[14] 西蒙等人回顾来过去一万年的资源危机情况，发现了这一格局：每当物资不足时，人们便以革新来对付。他们发现了新的物资，或实行资源保护。
[15] 通常，匮乏会导致更好的代用品。 3 000年前，希腊人从青铜时代向铁器时代的过渡就是由于贸易中断而引发的。制造青铜需要锡，而锡的不足使得希腊人试用铁。同样， 16世纪的英国因木材短缺而开始了用煤的时代；发生于 1850年左右的鲸油的短缺促成了 1859年第一口油井的开发。
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[16] 暂时的短缺的确会发生，但是西蒙及其他兴旺论者论证说，只要政府不进行干预——指令保护或价格控制——人们会找到可替换的代用品。
[17] 在他于 1981年发表的名为《极限资源》一书中，西蒙写道：人的足智多谋能无限扩大地球的承载能力。 这一观点表明了西蒙和埃利希之间的主要分歧：世界不是被看作一个封闭的生态系统而是被看作一个机动灵活的市场。
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[18] 西蒙承认，这个市场的确需要某种管理。但是美国的空气和水在过去的数十年中变得越来越清洁了，这部分应归功于更大的富裕（更富有的社会有能力支付控制污染的费用）和工业技术（与本世纪初烧煤的炉子所释放的煤烟和马所排出的粪相比，我们城市中由汽车所引起的污染是微不足道的）。
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[19] 西蒙坚持认为环境危机在被夸大。 ―一旦一场预测的危机没有发生，这些毁灭论者就匆匆转向另一个 ‖，他抱怨说，―为新的问题而担忧，这无可非议——但是，情况总的说来在好转，对此，他们为什么看不见 ?他们否认我们解决问题的创造力。‖
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[20] 西蒙最为激烈的战斗是埃利希世界人口过多的说法。西蒙承认，人口的增长会引起短时期的问题，但是他强调，当那些孩子成长为有生产能力和足智多谋的成人时，便会出现长时期的裨益。他抨击埃利希，因为后者建议政府使用强迫的办法业限制家庭规模并对拒绝控制人口增长的国家停止食品的援助。
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[21] 在学术界，西蒙在这场辩论中似乎在占上风。许多科学家们对他的一概都表示乐观的思想感到不舒服——无法保证过去的趋势会持续下去——但是一致的意见都不赞成埃利希视人口增长为极大罪恶的见解。
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[22] 然而，若提起谁在公众中占上风的话，西蒙仍然远远落在后面。去年地球日之前，埃利希正在电视上推销他的新书《人口爆炸》，此书声称 ―人口炸弹已经起爆 ‖。在华盛顿举行的地球日集会上，当埃利希告诉人们人口增长可能产生这样一个世界，即他们的子孙将在美国大街上忍受食品暴乱时，超过十万人的人群都为之鼓掌。
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[23] 向一天，在一个只隔一街区远的小会议室里，西蒙将人口增长称为对死亡的胜利，因为是由于工业革命以来人类的估计寿命延长了一倍： ―这是难以置信的进步 ‖，他说， ―你本指望人类生命的热爱者们欢欣鼓舞；可相反，他们却在为如此多的人仍然活着而痛惜。‖为西蒙发布的消息而祝贺的听众只有 16人。
[24] 埃利希和西蒙的打赌在去年秋天平平淡淡地了结了。埃利希不过是给西蒙寄去了一纸金属价格计算账单以及 576.07美元的支票。埃利希那些人所选的五种金属中的每一种，在排除 1980年以来通货膨胀因素以后，价格都下降了。
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[25] 物价下跌，其部分原因与数十年前下跌的原因相同——创业精神和持续不断的技术进步。勘探者找到了新的矿脉。多亏计算机、新机器和新的化学反应过程，才有了更有效的提炼矿石的方法。
[26] 金属的许多用途都被更便宜的材料取代了，特别是塑料制品。电话改由卫星和光导纤维传递而不再是铜线。切削刀具使用的是陶瓷制品而不是钨。
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[27] 未来是否可以此为训呢 ? ―绝对不可，‖埃利希说，―看看新出现的问题吧 ：臭氧洞、酸雨及全球变暖。如果下一世纪我们让生态系统继续走下坡路的话，我们有可能面对巨大的人口总崩溃，对此我毫无疑问。‖
[28] 听到他的对手的反应， 西蒙并不吃惊。 ―这么说埃利希在淡人口总崩溃‖，他说，―这听上去倒是更好的赚钱方法。就此打赌下注，我给他特大优惠。‖
Background Knowledge
Paul R. Ehrlich received his Ph.D. from the University of Kansas. Co-founder with Peter H. Raven of the field of coevolution, he has pursued long-term studies of the structure, dynamics, and genetics of natural butterfly populations. He has also been a pioneer in
alerting the public to the problems of overpopulation, and in raising issues of population, resources, and the environment as matters of public policy. Professor Ehrlich's research group covers several areas. It continues to study the dynamics and genetics of natural populations of checkerspot butterflies (Euphydryas). This research
Background Knowledge
has applications to such problems as the control of insect pests and optimum designs for nature reserves. A central focus of his group is investigating ways that human-disturbed landscapes can be made more hospitable to biodiversity. This work in "countryside
biogeography" is under the direction of Dr. Gretchen Daily, founder of the field. The Ehrlich group's policy research on the
population-resource-environment crisis takes a broad overview of the world situation, but also works intensively in such areas of immediate legislative interests as endangered species and the preservation of genetic resources. A special interest of Ehrlich's is cultural evolution,
Background Knowledge
especially with respect to environmental ethics. Professor Ehrlich is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Philosophical Society, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Professor Ehrlich has received several
honorary degrees, the John Muir Award of the Sierra Club, the Gold Medal Award of the World Wildlife Fund International, a MacArthur Prize Fellowship, the Crafoord Prize of the Royal Swedish Academy of
Background Knowledge
Sciences (given in lieu of a Nobel Prize in areas where the Nobel is not given), in 1993 the Volvo Environmental Prize, in 1994 the United Nations' Sasakawa Environment Prize, in 1995 the Heinz Award for the Environment, in 1998 the Tyler Prize for
Environmental Achievement and the Dr. A. H. Heineken Prize for Environmental Sciences, in 1999 the Blue Planet Prize, in 2001 the Eminent
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Ecologist Award of the Ecological Society of America and the
Distinguished Scientist Award of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. Members of Professor Ehrlich's research group have gone on to join the faculties of Harvard, Princeton, Cornell, Brown, and Montana State Universities, and the Universities of California, Texas, Michigan, and Florida.
Background Knowledge
Julian Simon1932 – 1998
University of Maryland, College Park, College of Business and Management
Background Knowledge
Bronze Age: Third phase in the development of material culture among the ancient peoples of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, following the Paleolithic and Neolithic periods and preceding the Iron Age. The term also denotes the first period in which metal was used. The date at which the age began varied by region; in Greece and China it began before 3000 BC, in Britain not until c.1900 BC. The beginning of the period is sometimes called the Chalcolithic (Copper-Stone) Age, referring to the initial use of pure copper (along
Background Knowledge
with its predecessor, stone). By 3000 BC the use of copper was well known in the Middle East, had extended westward into the Mediterranean area, and was beginning to infiltrate Europe. Only in the 2nd millennium BC did true bronze come to be widely used. The age was marked by increased specialization and the invention of the wheel and the ox-drawn plow. From c.1000 BC the ability to heat and forge iron brought the Bronze Age to an end.
Background Knowledge
Iron Age: The period in cultural development succeeding the Bronze Age in Asia, Europe, and Africa, characterized by the
introduction of iron metallurgy. In Europe it began around the eighth century B.C.A system for classifying prehistoric artifacts according to successive stages of technological development, divided into the Stone, Bronze, and Iron ages.In organizing the extensive collection of artifacts at the National Museum of Denmark, the 19th-century Danish archaeologist Christian Thomsen proposed an innovative system based on the
Background Knowledge
assumption of a progression in human technology from stone to bronze to iron. His insight that early technology had developed in chronological stages rather than concurrently at different levels of society proved essentially correct, though ultimately of limited use in describing the various progressions in other parts of the world. Once empirical study of archaeological collections began,
Thomsen's Three Age system was rapidly modifed into four ages by the subdivision of the Stone Age into the Old Stone (now
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Paleolithic) and New Stone (Neolithic) ages. Subsequent
refinement has added Mesolithic (Middle Stone) and Chalcolithic (Copper and Stone) to the original terms, which are now known as periods rather than ages. Use of the full terminology-Paleolithic, Mesolithic, Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze, and Iron-is appropriate only for Europe, the Middle East, and Egypt, and even there it is not uniformly accepted among archaeologists today.
Background Knowledge
The History of Earth Day
In 1963, former Senator Gaylord Nelson began to worry about our
planet. (A senator is a person that the people of the United States have chosen to help make the laws.) Senator Nelson knew that our world was getting dirty and that many of our plants and animals were dying. He wondered why more people weren't trying to solve these problems. He talked to other lawmakers and to the President. They decided that the President would go around the country and tell people about these
Background Knowledge
concerns. He did, but still not enough people were working on the problem. Then, in 1969, Senator Nelson had another idea. He decided to have a special day to teach everyone about the things that needed changing in our environment. He wrote letters to all of the colleges and put a special article in Scholastic Magazine to tell them about the special day he had planned. (Most of the schools got this magazine and he knew that kids would help him.) On April 22, 1970, the first Earth Day was held. People all over the country made promises to help the environment. Everyone got involved and since
Background Knowledge
then, Earth Day has spread all over the planet. People all over the world know that there are problems we need to work.Earth Day 1970 achieved a rare political alignment, enlisting support from Republicans and Democrats, rich and poor, city slickers and
farmers, tycoons and labor leaders. The first Earth Day led to the creation of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the passage of the Clean Air, Clean Water, and Endangered
Species acts.Sen. Nelson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom -- the highest honor given to civilians in the United States -- for his role as Earth Day founder.
Background Knowledge
then, Earth Day has spread all over the planet. People all over the world know that there are problems we need to work.Earth Day 1970 achieved a rare political alignment, enlisting support from Republicans and Democrats, rich and poor, city slickers and
farmers, tycoons and labor leaders. The first Earth Day led to the creation of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the passage of the Clean Air, Clean Water, and Endangered
Species acts.Sen. Nelson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom -- the highest honor given to civilians in the United States
-- for his role as Earth Day founder.
《研究生英语精读教程》(第三版下)
中国人民大学出版社
Part Summary
[1~2]
John Tierney outlines the bet and the differences between the two sides.Two intellectual schools debate whether the world is getting better or going to the dogs.
Part Summary
[3~4]
the doomster and his proposition
Erhrich predicted that "before 1985 mankind will enter an age of scarcity" in which "the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be nearing depletion".
Part Summary
[5~6]
the boomster and his point of view
Simon believes that population growth constitutes not a crisis but a boon that will ultimately mean a cleaner environment and a healthier humanity.
Part Summary
[7~9]
How the bet came into being.
Part Summary
[10-11]
Erhrich's predictions and the reality
Ehrlich was right about world population. Yet somehow the average person is healthier and wealthier. And things haven't run out yet.
Part Summary
[12~20]
Simon's opposite propositions towards Erhrich's predictions
Simon believed that human ingenuity could indefinitely expand the planet's carrying capacity.
Part Summary
[21~23]
Simon had never enjoyed Ehrlich's academic success, when it came to winning over popularity.
Many scientists are uncomfortable with his sweeping optimism - there is no guarantee that past trends will continue - but the consensus has been shifting against Ehrlich's idea of population growth as the great evil.
Part Summary
[24~26]
The bet ended in Simon's success due to the decline in price
Part Summary
[27-28]
New problems do exist, but there will be a way out.
Text Summary
What is the relationship between mankind and the earth? There was a fierce debate between Paul R. Ehrlich, an ecologist, and Julian L. Simon, an economist. Their debate in nature is between doomsters and boomsters over a view of the planet's ultimate limits and a vision of humanity's destiny. Ehrlich believed that population growth would result in depletion of
resources. However, Simon held the idea that the resources were not finite. With the population growth, more people would produce more bright ideas to solve the problem. The key point of Simon's argument was that human ingenuity could indefinitely expand the planet's carrying capacity while Ehrlich's idea about the world was that a gigantic population crash would inevitably occur. From the debate it may be concluded that the danger does exist, yet there is a way out.
全文翻译
为地球的未来下赌注
输赢岂能赌资计兴亡自是人心系
节编自《纽约时报杂志》
约翰·蒂尔尼
全文翻译
[1] 1980年，一位生态学家与一位经济学家就五种金属的未来价格打赌1 000美元。与此攸关者何止千元——其中有对地球最终极限的看法，有对人类命运的设想，一位看见的是杀虫剂渗入地下水，而另一位眼中则有农场上简仓内装满了创记录的大丰收；一位所见的是热带雨林被大批毁坏，而另一位已看到人们寿命的延长。
[2] 现在，这两个人分头领导着两个思想派别——有时被称作毁灭论者和兴旺论者，这两大派为世界是在蒸蒸日上还是在走向毁灭而争论不休。
全文翻译
[3] 生态学家保罗 · R·埃利希， 56岁，自从 1968年发表《人口炸弹》一书以来一直是世界较知名的科学家之一。该书销售量为两百多万本。如果埃利希不是在斯坦福大学教书或研究蝴蝶的话，那就可以发现他在搞讲座，参加领奖或在 ―今日 ‖节目中露面。他是悲观论者。
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[4] 《人口炸弹》一书是这样开头的：―养活所有人类的战斗已经结束。 20世纪 70年代将死于饥饿者达亿万之数。‖埃利希写道：―什么也防止不了世界死亡的大幅度增长。‖1974年，他预言道：―1985年以前，人类将进入一个匮乏的时代 ‖，在这个时代，―许多主要矿物供开发的储藏量将被耗尽。‖
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[5] 经济学家朱利安 · L·西蒙， 59岁，是马里兰大学的教授。过去十年来他的观点一直影响着对华盛顿政策的形成，但他却从未在学术上或知名度上有埃利希那样的成就。他是乐观论者。
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[6] 西蒙认为，人口增长不是危机，而最终将意味着大有裨益于更洁
净的环境和更健康的人类。未来的世界将更美好，因为将有更多的人提供更聪明的思想。人类的进步是无限的，因为地球上的资源不是有限的。
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[7] 1980年，当西蒙在《科学》杂志上谈他对未来的幸福憧憬时，他的文章引来了大量愤怒的书信。一位被激怒的埃利希提供了简单的计算：地球的资源不得不按当时情况每年以 7 500万人的速度而增加的人口来分配，这超过了地球的 ―承载能力 ‖——地球上食品、淡水和矿物的储藏量。随着资源的更加短缺，商品一定会昂贵起来，这是不可避免的。
[8] 西蒙以挑战的方式作了答复。选出任何一种自然资源——谷类、石油、煤、木材、金属——和任何一个未来的日期。如果随着世界人口的增长资源将变得更加短缺，那么资源的价格也要上涨。西蒙要求以打赌的方式肯定价格反而会下降。
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[9] 埃利希接受了西蒙的挑战。1980年 10月，他就五种金属——铬、铜、镍、锡和钨——赌 1 000美元。如果 1990年在排除通货膨胀因素之后这五种金属的总价格结果将高于 1 000美元，差额将由西蒙付给他。如果价格下降，埃利希将付钱给西蒙。合同签好了，而至今仍从未见面的埃利希和西蒙在整个 80年代继续互相攻击。
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[10] 埃利希对世界人口的预测是正确的。现有世界人口 53亿，比他发表的《人口炸弹》一书时多 18亿。然而不知为什么，普通人却比以前更健康、更富裕了。婴儿死亡率下降了，估计寿命延长了，这在第三世界尤为显著。在遭受战乱、旱灾和灾难性的农业政策的国家里确实发生过饥荒，但是总的食品产量却超过人口的增长。专家们一致认为，与 1968年相比，今日的第三世界普通人的营养状况要更好些。算账的日子将不得不重新排定。
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[11] 埃利希所持观点是有限世界的显而易见的主张：资源会消耗殆尽。环境保护论者们所用的一条标语将此表达得再好不过了：―我们不是从父辈那儿继承地球；我们是从孩子们那儿借用它。‖这一观点决定了我们的行为方式：我们将报纸捆扎保留起来就是为了避免耗尽造纸用的木材。相反的论点远非如此凭直觉即可令人信服。该论点一般只
包括一个简单的问题：资源为什么还没被用完 ?
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[12] 当朱利安 ·西蒙在 60年代末期听到有关人口过剩的不祥预测时，他开始撰文阐明说服妇女少生孩子的必要性，但是就在那时他读到的一些研究表明，总体来说，人口快速增长的国家并不比其他国家更困难，许多国家生活甚至更好。
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[13] 他也发现这样的证据，即自然资源的价格自从 1820年以来的确是下降了。与上一世纪相比，今天的普通工人用一小时的工资可买更多的煤，正如他可以买更多的金属和食品一样。随着人口的增长，物资也丰富起来。
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[14] 西蒙等人回顾来过去一万年的资源危机情况，发现了这一格局：每当物资不足时，人们便以革新来对付。他们发现了新的物资，或实行资源保护。
[15] 通常，匮乏会导致更好的代用品。 3 000年前，希腊人从青铜时代向铁器时代的过渡就是由于贸易中断而引发的。制造青铜需要锡，而锡的不足使得希腊人试用铁。同样， 16世纪的英国因木材短缺而开始了用煤的时代；发生于 1850年左右的鲸油的短缺促成了 1859年第一口油井的开发。
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[16] 暂时的短缺的确会发生，但是西蒙及其他兴旺论者论证说，只要政府不进行干预——指令保护或价格控制——人们会找到可替换的代用品。
[17] 在他于 1981年发表的名为《极限资源》一书中，西蒙写道：人的足智多谋能无限扩大地球的承载能力。 这一观点表明了西蒙和埃利希之间的主要分歧：世界不是被看作一个封闭的生态系统而是被看作一个机动灵活的市场。
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[18] 西蒙承认，这个市场的确需要某种管理。但是美国的空气和水在过去的数十年中变得越来越清洁了，这部分应归功于更大的富裕（更富有的社会有能力支付控制污染的费用）和工业技术（与本世纪初烧煤的炉子所释放的煤烟和马所排出的粪相比，我们城市中由汽车所引起的污染是微不足道的）。
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[19] 西蒙坚持认为环境危机在被夸大。 ―一旦一场预测的危机没有发生，这些毁灭论者就匆匆转向另一个 ‖，他抱怨说，―为新的问题而担忧，这无可非议——但是，情况总的说来在好转，对此，他们为什么看不见 ?他们否认我们解决问题的创造力。‖
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[20] 西蒙最为激烈的战斗是埃利希世界人口过多的说法。西蒙承认，人口的增长会引起短时期的问题，但是他强调，当那些孩子成长为有生产能力和足智多谋的成人时，便会出现长时期的裨益。他抨击埃利希，因为后者建议政府使用强迫的办法业限制家庭规模并对拒绝控制人口增长的国家停止食品的援助。
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[21] 在学术界，西蒙在这场辩论中似乎在占上风。许多科学家们对他的一概都表示乐观的思想感到不舒服——无法保证过去的趋势会持续下去——但是一致的意见都不赞成埃利希视人口增长为极大罪恶的见解。
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[22] 然而，若提起谁在公众中占上风的话，西蒙仍然远远落在后面。去年地球日之前，埃利希正在电视上推销他的新书《人口爆炸》，此书声称 ―人口炸弹已经起爆 ‖。在华盛顿举行的地球日集会上，当埃利希告诉人们人口增长可能产生这样一个世界，即他们的子孙将在美国大街上忍受食品暴乱时，超过十万人的人群都为之鼓掌。
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[23] 向一天，在一个只隔一街区远的小会议室里，西蒙将人口增长称为对死亡的胜利，因为是由于工业革命以来人类的估计寿命延长了一倍： ―这是难以置信的进步 ‖，他说， ―你本指望人类生命的热爱者们欢欣鼓舞；可相反，他们却在为如此多的人仍然活着而痛惜。‖为西蒙发布的消息而祝贺的听众只有 16人。
[24] 埃利希和西蒙的打赌在去年秋天平平淡淡地了结了。埃利希不过是给西蒙寄去了一纸金属价格计算账单以及 576.07美元的支票。埃利希那些人所选的五种金属中的每一种，在排除 1980年以来通货膨胀因素以后，价格都下降了。
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[25] 物价下跌，其部分原因与数十年前下跌的原因相同——创业精神和持续不断的技术进步。勘探者找到了新的矿脉。多亏计算机、新机器和新的化学反应过程，才有了更有效的提炼矿石的方法。
[26] 金属的许多用途都被更便宜的材料取代了，特别是塑料制品。电话改由卫星和光导纤维传递而不再是铜线。切削刀具使用的是陶瓷制品而不是钨。
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[27] 未来是否可以此为训呢 ? ―绝对不可，‖埃利希说，―看看新出现的问题吧 ：臭氧洞、酸雨及全球变暖。如果下一世纪我们让生态系统继续走下坡路的话，我们有可能面对巨大的人口总崩溃，对此我毫无疑问。‖
[28] 听到他的对手的反应， 西蒙并不吃惊。 ―这么说埃利希在淡人口总崩溃‖，他说，―这听上去倒是更好的赚钱方法。就此打赌下注，我给他特大优惠。‖
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Paul R. Ehrlich received his Ph.D. from the University of Kansas. Co-founder with Peter H. Raven of the field of coevolution, he has pursued long-term studies of the structure, dynamics, and genetics of natural butterfly populations. He has also been a pioneer in
alerting the public to the problems of overpopulation, and in raising issues of population, resources, and the environment as matters of public policy. Professor Ehrlich's research group covers several areas. It continues to study the dynamics and genetics of natural populations of checkerspot butterflies (Euphydryas). This research
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has applications to such problems as the control of insect pests and optimum designs for nature reserves. A central focus of his group is investigating ways that human-disturbed landscapes can be made more hospitable to biodiversity. This work in "countryside
biogeography" is under the direction of Dr. Gretchen Daily, founder of the field. The Ehrlich group's policy research on the
population-resource-environment crisis takes a broad overview of the world situation, but also works intensively in such areas of immediate legislative interests as endangered species and the preservation of genetic resources. A special interest of Ehrlich's is cultural evolution,
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especially with respect to environmental ethics. Professor Ehrlich is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Philosophical Society, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Professor Ehrlich has received several
honorary degrees, the John Muir Award of the Sierra Club, the Gold Medal Award of the World Wildlife Fund International, a MacArthur Prize Fellowship, the Crafoord Prize of the Royal Swedish Academy of
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Sciences (given in lieu of a Nobel Prize in areas where the Nobel is not given), in 1993 the Volvo Environmental Prize, in 1994 the United Nations' Sasakawa Environment Prize, in 1995 the Heinz Award for the Environment, in 1998 the Tyler Prize for
Environmental Achievement and the Dr. A. H. Heineken Prize for Environmental Sciences, in 1999 the Blue Planet Prize, in 2001 the Eminent
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Ecologist Award of the Ecological Society of America and the
Distinguished Scientist Award of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. Members of Professor Ehrlich's research group have gone on to join the faculties of Harvard, Princeton, Cornell, Brown, and Montana State Universities, and the Universities of California, Texas, Michigan, and Florida.
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Julian Simon1932 – 1998
University of Maryland, College Park, College of Business and Management
Background Knowledge
Bronze Age: Third phase in the development of material culture among the ancient peoples of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, following the Paleolithic and Neolithic periods and preceding the Iron Age. The term also denotes the first period in which metal was used. The date at which the age began varied by region; in Greece and China it began before 3000 BC, in Britain not until c.1900 BC. The beginning of the period is sometimes called the Chalcolithic (Copper-Stone) Age, referring to the initial use of pure copper (along
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with its predecessor, stone). By 3000 BC the use of copper was well known in the Middle East, had extended westward into the Mediterranean area, and was beginning to infiltrate Europe. Only in the 2nd millennium BC did true bronze come to be widely used. The age was marked by increased specialization and the invention of the wheel and the ox-drawn plow. From c.1000 BC the ability to heat and forge iron brought the Bronze Age to an end.
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Iron Age: The period in cultural development succeeding the Bronze Age in Asia, Europe, and Africa, characterized by the
introduction of iron metallurgy. In Europe it began around the eighth century B.C.A system for classifying prehistoric artifacts according to successive stages of technological development, divided into the Stone, Bronze, and Iron ages.In organizing the extensive collection of artifacts at the National Museum of Denmark, the 19th-century Danish archaeologist Christian Thomsen proposed an innovative system based on the
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assumption of a progression in human technology from stone to bronze to iron. His insight that early technology had developed in chronological stages rather than concurrently at different levels of society proved essentially correct, though ultimately of limited use in describing the various progressions in other parts of the world. Once empirical study of archaeological collections began,
Thomsen's Three Age system was rapidly modifed into four ages by the subdivision of the Stone Age into the Old Stone (now
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Paleolithic) and New Stone (Neolithic) ages. Subsequent
refinement has added Mesolithic (Middle Stone) and Chalcolithic (Copper and Stone) to the original terms, which are now known as periods rather than ages. Use of the full terminology-Paleolithic, Mesolithic, Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze, and Iron-is appropriate only for Europe, the Middle East, and Egypt, and even there it is not uniformly accepted among archaeologists today.
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The History of Earth Day
In 1963, former Senator Gaylord Nelson began to worry about our
planet. (A senator is a person that the people of the United States have chosen to help make the laws.) Senator Nelson knew that our world was getting dirty and that many of our plants and animals were dying. He wondered why more people weren't trying to solve these problems. He talked to other lawmakers and to the President. They decided that the President would go around the country and tell people about these
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concerns. He did, but still not enough people were working on the problem. Then, in 1969, Senator Nelson had another idea. He decided to have a special day to teach everyone about the things that needed changing in our environment. He wrote letters to all of the colleges and put a special article in Scholastic Magazine to tell them about the special day he had planned. (Most of the schools got this magazine and he knew that kids would help him.) On April 22, 1970, the first Earth Day was held. People all over the country made promises to help the environment. Everyone got involved and since
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then, Earth Day has spread all over the planet. People all over the world know that there are problems we need to work.Earth Day 1970 achieved a rare political alignment, enlisting support from Republicans and Democrats, rich and poor, city slickers and
farmers, tycoons and labor leaders. The first Earth Day led to the creation of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the passage of the Clean Air, Clean Water, and Endangered
Species acts.Sen. Nelson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom -- the highest honor given to civilians in the United States -- for his role as Earth Day founder.
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then, Earth Day has spread all over the planet. People all over the world know that there are problems we need to work.Earth Day 1970 achieved a rare political alignment, enlisting support from Republicans and Democrats, rich and poor, city slickers and
farmers, tycoons and labor leaders. The first Earth Day led to the creation of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the passage of the Clean Air, Clean Water, and Endangered
Species acts.Sen. Nelson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom -- the highest honor given to civilians in the United States
-- for his role as Earth Day founder.